43.71%
7-Day Accuracy
636 signals
+8.74%
Avg Alpha When Right
vs SPY benchmark
1.42x
Win/Loss Ratio
Premium
+4.2pp
Consensus Edge
Premium
Methodology
How we measure: Every story generates a directional signal (bullish or bearish) on a specific ticker. We cluster signals on the same ticker within each measurement window and score the consensus direction against actual market outcomes, measured as excess return vs SPY.
What counts: ≥0.5% favorable excess return = outperformed. ≥0.5% adverse = underperformed. We require 10+ signals per window before reporting accuracy rates.
No LLM in scoring: All price data from Yahoo Finance. Scoring is pure math on real market data, computed daily, and cannot be retroactively modified.
Sample: Best Call
| Ticker | Headline | Direction | Alpha | Sources | Published |
|---|
| INTC |
Commerce Department Proposes Expanded AI Chip Export Fr... |
bullish |
+192.26% |
4 |
2026-03-27 |
Performance by Horizon
| Window | Signals | Accuracy | Avg Alpha Win | Avg Alpha Loss | W/L Ratio | Expected Alpha |
|---|
| 1d |
950 |
34.74% |
+4.99% |
-3.5% |
1.43x |
-0.55% |
| 7d |
636 |
43.71% |
+8.74% |
-6.88% |
1.27x |
-0.05% |
| 30d |
355 |
38.59% |
+21.53% |
-14.33% |
1.5x |
-0.49% |
| 60d |
244 |
38.11% |
+44.94% |
-22.07% |
2.04x |
+3.47% |
| 90d |
101 |
35.64% |
+36.81% |
-24.77% |
1.49x |
-2.82% |
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43.71%
7-Day Accuracy
636 signals
+8.74%
Avg Alpha When Right
vs SPY benchmark
1.27x
Win/Loss Ratio
Positive expected value
+5.87pp
Consensus Edge
Multi-source vs single
Performance by Horizon
Accuracy and alpha metrics across measurement windows. Only windows with 10+ signals shown.
| Window | Signals | Accuracy | Avg Alpha Win | Avg Alpha Loss | W/L Ratio | Expected Alpha |
|---|
| 1d |
950 |
34.74% |
+4.99% |
-3.5% |
1.43x |
-0.55% |
| 7d |
636 |
43.71% |
+8.74% |
-6.88% |
1.27x |
-0.05% |
| 30d |
355 |
38.59% |
+21.53% |
-14.33% |
1.5x |
-0.49% |
| 60d |
244 |
38.11% |
+44.94% |
-22.07% |
2.04x |
+3.47% |
| 90d |
101 |
35.64% |
+36.81% |
-24.77% |
1.49x |
-2.82% |
Consensus Strength
Does coverage from multiple independent sources improve signal accuracy?
Multi-source signals outperform single-source by 5.87 percentage points.
2286 total signals scored. This metric stabilizes as more data accumulates.
1 source
36.42%
1579 signals
2 sources
37.06%
340 signals
3+ sources
47.14%
367 signals
Directional Breakdown
Bullish and bearish signal accuracy, reported separately. Only windows with 10+ signals shown.
Bullish (5024 raw scores)
| Window | Signals | Accuracy | Avg Alpha |
|---|
| 1d |
851 |
34.55% |
+0.36% |
| 7d |
589 |
43.46% |
+0.43% |
| 30d |
331 |
39.88% |
+0.61% |
| 60d |
227 |
37.89% |
+6.1% |
| 90d |
90 |
37.78% |
+1.15% |
Bearish (920 raw scores)
| Window | Signals | Accuracy | Avg Alpha |
|---|
| 1d |
99 |
36.36% |
+0.99% |
| 7d |
47 |
46.81% |
+0.32% |
| 30d |
24 |
20.83% |
-11.04% |
| 60d |
17 |
41.18% |
-29.04% |
| 90d |
11 |
18.18% |
-33.05% |
Notable Calls
Each call is evaluated using its longest matured window (1d / 7d / 30d / 60d / 90d). Window shown next to each alpha.
Top Performers
| Ticker | Headline | Direction | Alpha | Sources | Published |
|---|
| INTC |
Commerce Department Proposes Expanded AI Chip Export Fr... |
bullish |
+192.26% 90d |
4 |
2026-03-27 |
| VBIX |
Viewbix Rebrands to Quantum X Labs to Develop Quantum C... |
bullish |
+141.57% 60d |
1 |
2026-04-21 |
| 000660.KS |
SK hynix Begins Mass Production of 192GB SOCAMM2 Memory... |
bullish |
+124.91% 60d |
4 |
2026-04-19 |
| AMD |
TSMC Confirms 2nm Process Node on Track for Volume Prod... |
bullish |
+124.32% 90d |
16 |
2026-03-25 |
| MU |
SanDisk Authorizes $6 Billion Stock Buyback as AI Memor... |
bullish |
+118.35% 60d |
4 |
2026-04-30 |
Worst Performers
| Ticker | Headline | Direction | Alpha | Sources | Published |
|---|
| QURE |
uniQure Plans UK MHRA Filing for Huntington's Gene Ther... |
bearish |
-134.44% 60d |
1 |
2026-04-30 |
| DELL |
Nvidia Denies Rumors of Acquisition Talks with Large PC... |
bearish |
-115.85% 90d |
1 |
2026-04-13 |
| ONCO |
Realbotix Launches Vinci AI Vision System with First De... |
bullish |
-101.78% 90d |
1 |
2026-04-09 |
| FTNT |
UK Regulators Urgently Assess Cybersecurity Risks from ... |
bearish |
-94.8% 90d |
1 |
2026-04-12 |
| PANW |
UK Regulators Urgently Assess Cybersecurity Risks from ... |
bearish |
-94.06% 90d |
1 |
2026-04-12 |
Weekly Commentary
Our signals this week delivered 39.82% accuracy across 565 scored events, with 303 underperformers against 225 outperformers. The distribution tilted clearly negative in the near term, extending the pattern seen in the 1-day and 30-day cumulative windows where expected alpha remained negative at -0.53% and -0.3% respectively.
Over the full 2025-12-15 to 2026-07-09 period, performance improves materially at longer horizons. The 60-day window produced +4.58% expected alpha on a 2.06x win/loss ratio, and the 90-day window reached +4.11% expected alpha on a 2.47x ratio. This suggests our detection captures moves that require time to materialize rather than immediate reactions, even as overall accuracy stays below 50% at every horizon.
The consensus data quantifies the pipeline's edge. Signals backed by three or more sources reached 46.74% accuracy versus 36.41% for single-source events, a 6.55 percentage point lift that holds across the dataset. Two-source signals sit in between at 38.91%, confirming that source convergence, not volume alone, drives the improvement.
Next week we will track the 229 signals now entering the 60-day window and the 68 signals approaching 90 days, particularly those carrying three-plus source confirmation. These cohorts have shown the strongest risk-adjusted outcomes to date and represent the clearest test of whether the current accuracy gap narrows as longer-horizon events resolve.
Methodology
Signal clustering: Signals on the same ticker published within N days of each other (where N = measurement window) form a cluster. If 67%+ agree on direction, the cluster is scored as a single signal. Mixed signals are excluded.
Accuracy rate: The percentage of scored clusters where the consensus direction outperformed SPY by ≥0.5% excess return. Underperformed = ≥0.5% adverse excess return. Between = neutral (excluded from accuracy).
Alpha metrics: Avg Alpha Win is the mean excess return on correct calls. Avg Alpha Loss is the mean excess return on incorrect calls. Win/Loss Ratio = Avg Win / Avg Loss — must exceed 1.0 for positive expected value. Expected Alpha = (accuracy × avg win) − ((1 − accuracy) × avg loss).
Consensus edge: The accuracy improvement when multiple independent sources reinforce the same signal vs single-source calls. A positive edge validates the multi-source pipeline.
Measurement windows: 1, 7, 30, 60, and 90 trading days. Short windows (1d) capture noise; 7-30d windows capture signal quality. Rates require 10+ signals to display.
Data integrity: All price data from Yahoo Finance. No LLM involvement in scoring — pure math on real market data. Scores computed daily and cannot be retroactively modified.