US Lawmakers Introduce MATCH Act to Restrict Chipmaking Equipment Exports to China, Targeting ASML and Allies

What's happening

Bipartisan US lawmakers have introduced the MATCH Act (Maintaining American Technological Competitiveness and Hardware), proposed legislation that would expand semiconductor export controls beyond US-made tools to include equipment manufactured by allied nations including Japan and the Netherlands. The bill specifically targets advanced lithography systems, including ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines.

China accounted for approximately 33% of ASML's 2025 revenue, making the proposed restrictions a significant potential revenue impact for the Dutch chipmaking equipment manufacturer. The legislation would also restrict servicing of previously sold equipment, which could affect installed base maintenance revenue.

Why it matters for markets

The MATCH Act represents a significant escalation in semiconductor export controls by attempting to extend US regulatory authority over allied nations' products. Previous export controls focused primarily on US-manufactured chips and equipment, but the new legislation acknowledges that effective restrictions require multilateral coordination.

For ASML, the bill creates substantial uncertainty. Losing access to 33% of revenue from Chinese customers would require significant business restructuring and could affect the company's ability to fund its aggressive R&D roadmap for next-generation lithography systems. However, redirected demand from non-Chinese semiconductor manufacturers could partially offset the revenue impact.

The broader semiconductor supply chain faces potential fragmentation along geopolitical lines. Chinese semiconductor manufacturers would need to accelerate development of domestic lithography alternatives, while non-Chinese foundries could benefit from reduced competition as Chinese fabs face equipment access constraints.

Sectors and assets to watch

ASML faces the most direct revenue risk if China access is restricted, though increased demand from non-Chinese customers could partially compensate. TSMC (TSM) could gain market share as Chinese competitors face equipment constraints. Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD face complex dynamics with potential supply chain benefits offset by reduced Chinese market access for their own products.

Japanese equipment makers including Tokyo Electron face similar regulatory exposure, while semiconductor equipment companies focused on non-restricted technology segments could benefit from redirected investment.

What to watch next

Track the MATCH Act's progress through congressional committees and any amendments that modify its scope. Monitor responses from the Dutch and Japanese governments, as their cooperation is essential for effective implementation. Watch ASML's next earnings for updated guidance on China revenue exposure and diversification strategies.